Who is the next superpower of the world:

China, Brazil, India, Russia or USA still ?

Published on August 7, 2004 By web_poet In Current Events

I am just wondering about the global redistribution of economic, political and military power in the next few years. Right now, the great U.S. of A. is the sole global superpower, and also the only watchdog of the world, right ? But will things remain the same in,say,the next 15-30 years ?

Will USA have the permanent monopoly in world's superpowerdom ? Or, will an upcoming new power outstrip the United States? If so, who shall be the next superpower of the world ? I dont have an answer yet but only some hazy ideas.

China might be a possible choice, right ? It has more or less stabilized its population and its economy is booming. The large majority of its cream of human resources is coming back to serve it, esp. in the Quangzoo area where silicon valley-like and Boston area-like knowledge empires are coming up. China has more or less controlled its internal dissent and has no overt external enemies right now-even that, she has the confidence to tackle. It has also some brand names in the world market. And its S & T potential is siginificant.

What about India, well, a borderline case. India's economy is also booming ,at least, in her metros. But she has lot of internal troubles esp, in the North East and J & K. And India has still unsettled business with many neighbors esp. Pakistan, bangladesh etc. Plus, she has still been unable to check her population growth and extreme rural and urban poverty. But in the southern states, IT is a booming industry. If India can solve her internal unrest and negotiate successfully to resolve her problems with neighbors, she might just have a chance in the reckoning.

Brazil also could be a potential candidate and so also are, Russia or the European Union. But who knows, an unexpected power may come out of the blue from the great African continent or even from the Middle East even. Till that time, USA will rule the roost. Wont she ?

Comments

Solitair

on Aug 09, 2004

The question should be what would topple the US from the roost and what effect would such a toppling have on the other potential players.

I believe the most likely trigger would be for the US to default on an interest replayment (it actually needs congress to vote more borrowing within the next month or so to stop this happening this year). This would immediately lead to an increase interest on all it's loans and stop borrowing dead in it's tracks. Anyone dealing with the US would demand paymnet in cash up front. The US government would have to drastically cut spending to service it's debt. Military spending would be slashed leading to a huge reduction in military might and an inability to exert power abroard. The entire economy could possibly even collaspe. The US would possibly loose it's super-power status.

An extreme reaction, but vaguely possible.

Such a reaction however would also severly impact hte US's major trading partners. Could the EU, Japan or even China power on to super-power status with the US economy in shreds? I doubt it. Europe is too closely linked to the US for their economies not to suffer very badly. Japan would loose it's key export market. Even China would be in serious trouble without US markets (and Japenese and Eu markets if they enter recession). I would expect the entire world to go into economic recession with no new super-power emerging until the US finally recovers from it's woes, by services it's debts. It may never again climb to the same super power status.

Paul.

web_poet

on Aug 09, 2004

Nice reply. keep coming back. keep blogging. Ciao

Madine

on Aug 09, 2004

Most of the US's debt is held internally. I doubt military spending would be significantly slashed. It is only about 15-20% of the federal budget.

Solitair

on Aug 10, 2004

Good point Madine,
but it doesn't matter who you actually default to. A default seriously lowers your credit rating and increases the interest rates you need to pay. Based on other countries which have had similar problems, a major run on the banks would occur, with companies and individuals withdrawing their money for safe keeping or investment elsewhere. Interest rates would sky rocket in an attempt to control this and economic recession would instantly hit. Banks would need to call in the US debt to replenish their stocks. Hence the US would still have to repay the internal debts, but would also be suffering from a serious recession. Would foreign companies or governments accept US credit if the US was known to be defaulting debt? The problem is that the US would need to service it's debt and start repaying it to restore economic confidence.

Where is it going to get that money from. It is borrowing billions a year as it is! Unemployment will also be increasing and tax income dropping. Where can it cut costs? Military is the obvious one. It may only be 15-20% of the budget, but that's a hell of a lot of money that a cash strapped government would need. Jsut decide not to fight any wars abroard and bring all the military home and you save billions instantly. Economy ssaved, but super power gone.

Paul.

web_poet

on Aug 23, 2004

So US will remain the superpower(cop?) for some time,right?

Solitair

on Aug 23, 2004

I believe so. The danger to the world economy of a US economic collaspe is too great for anyone (US authorities or foreign countries) not to take action to stop, and without US collaspe it won't loose the superpower status.

Paul.

Welcome Guest! Please take the time to register with us.
There are many great features available to you once you register, including:

Richer content, access to many features that are disabled for guests like commenting on the forums.
Access to a great community, with a massive database of many, many areas of interest.
Access to contests & subscription offers like exclusive emails.
It's simple, and FREE!